Ganacsiga caalamiga ah iyo dhaqaalaha adduunka oo la soo deristay khatar cimilo oo balaayiin dollar ku kacaysa

Ganacsiga caalamiga ah iyo dhaqaalaha adduunka oo la soo deristay khatar cimilo oo balaayiin dollar ku kacaysa 

Ku dhawaad ​​sagaal ka mid ah tobankii dekedood ee waaweyn ee caalamka ayaa la kulma khataraha cimilada ee waxyeelada leh, taasoo keentay in ay kor u kacdo saamaynta dhaqaale ee ganacsiga caalamiga ah, sida laga soo xigtay cilmi-baadhis cusub oo ay samaysay Jaamacadda Oxford’s machadkeda Environmental Change Institute (ECI).

Dekeduhu waxay muhiim u yihiin dhaqaalaha; waxay gacanta ku hayaan inta badan ganacsiga aduunka, waa xarun muhiim u ah warshadaha iyo gaadiidka, iyo shaqo bixiyayaasha. Laakiin, dabcigooda, dekeduhu waxay ay ku yaalaan meelaha halista u ah xeebaha iyo meelaha u dhow webiyada - oo ay ka dhacaan duufaano iyo daadad - waxayna ku qasbanaan doonaan inay la tacaalaan kor u kaca heerka badda iyo duufaanada daran sababtoo ah isbedelka cimilada.

Tani waxay sababi kartaa dhaawac jireed oo soo gaara kaabayaasha dekedda, waxayna carqaladayn kartaa hawlaha dekedda - oo leh cawaaqib xumo.Marka la qiyaaso inta ay le'eg tahay dhibaatadu, Hurricane Katrina (2005) waxay sheegtay in ay xidhay saddex dekedood oo Maraykanka ah kuwaas oo ku dhawaad ​​kala badh dhoofinta dalaga beeraha ee dalka. Iyada oo uu ku dhuftey dhulgariirkii Tōhoku ee 2011 iyo tsunami waxay waxyeeleeyeen hantida baddan oo qiimaheedu dhan yahay $12 bilyan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, khataraha cimilada ee dekeduhu waajahayaan lama qiyaasin heer caalami - ilaa hadda.

Daraasadda maanta [Khamiis], oo lagu daabacay waaxda  Isgaarsiinta Dhulka iyo Deegaanka, cilmi-baarayaasha ECI waxay bixiyaan sawir faahfaahsan oo khataraha cimilada  ee dekedaha 1,340 ugu muhiimsan adduunka. Waxa ay isku daraysaa xog cusub oo juqraafiyeedka hantida kaabayaasha dekeda oo leh xogta ugu faahfaahsan ee la heli karo ee khataraha dabiiciga ah, ee kusoo wajahan  oo ay ku jiraan dhulgariirrada, duufaanada iyo daadadka, iyo sidoo kale macluumaadka gudaha ee “xawaaraha badda” (xawaaraha dabaysha, hirarka, heerkulka, korka).

Waxaan ogaanay in 86% dhammaan dekedaha ay la kulmaan in ka badan saddex nooc oo khataraha cimilada iyo juqraafiyeed. Xaaladaha ba'an ee badda (tusaale, dabaylaha) ayaa la filayaa inay carqaladeeyaan hawlgalka ilaa 40% ee dekedaha caalamka. Intaa waxaa dheer, dekedaha ayaa la kulmaya khataro kale oo ay ka mid yihiin fatahaada webiga iyo dhulgariirrada sidaa darteed naqshadeeyayaasha dekeda iyo hawl-wadeenadu waa inay tixgeliyaan khataro badan. Taasi had iyo jeer ma dhacayso xilligan. Tusaale ahaan, aasaaska derbiyada jeexjeexyada waxay u baahan yihiin tixgelin taxaddar leh marka ay la kulmaan dhulgariirrada, jihada iyo naqshadeynta biyaha dillaaca marka ay la kulmaan mowjadaha xad dhaafka ah iyo qulqulka, iyo nidaamka qulqulka marka ay la kulmaan qulqulka . Haddii taasi aysan dhicin, waxaan arki karnaa carqalado waaweyn oo ku yimaada ganacsiga caalamiga ah iyo silsiladaha sahayda, "ayuu yiri hogaamiyaha cilmi-baarista Jasper Verschuur,

Khatarta cimiladu waxay gaartaa $7.6 bilyan sannadkii, kuwaas oo intooda badan loo aaneeyo duufaannada kulaala iyo fatahaadda webiyada ee dekedaha. Tiradani waxay ka badan tahay kala badh qiyaastii hore ee khatarta cimilada ee waddooyinka iyo kaabayaasha tareenada ee heerka caalamiga ah, taas oo muujinaysa in, inkasta oo dekedu ay ka kooban yihiin meelo yar yar, qiimaha sare iyo cufnaanta hantida waxay gacan ka geysan kartaa khatarta cimilada. heer qaran iyo heer caalamiba.

Khatarta ugu weyn ee cimilada waxaa soo food saara dekedaha waaweyn ee Aasiya, Gacanka Mexico iyo kuwa Galbeedka Yurub. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, inkasta oo khatarta buuxda ay si gaar ah ugu weyn tahay wadamada dakhligoodu sarreeyo, saameyntu waxay noqon kartaa kuwa ugu weyn dekedaha wadamada dakhliga dhexe.

Dekadaha waaweyn ee dalalka dhexe iyo kuwa dakhligoodu sarreeyo waxay u baahan yihiin inay sameeyaan maalgashi baaxad leh si ay u maareeyaan khatartooda marka la eego kororka isbeddelka cimilada, kaasoo noqon kara mid qaali ah. Dhanka kale, dib u cusboonaysiinta kaabayaasha ayaa loo baahan yahay si loo ilaaliyo dekedaha yar yar ee wadamada dhaqaalahoodu hooseeyo saamaynta halista iyo carqaladaynta joogtada ah, kuwaas oo saamayn nidaamsan ku yeelan kara dhaqaalaha ay u adeegaan. Dekadahan, saamaynta isbeddelka cimiladu ee dhaqdhaqaaqa dhaqaalaha waxaa lagu yarayn karaa hagaajinta kaabayaasha si ay u noqdaan kuwo u adkaysta masiibada oo loo hubiyo hawlgallada sanadka oo dhan.

‘Nasiib wanaag, hindiseyaal ayaa socda oo lagu tayeynayo kaabayaasha dekedu ee duugoobay iyo kuwa aan waxtarka lahayn ee dekedo badan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, dadaalladani waa kuwo gaabis ah marka loo eego caqabadaha la filayo ee isbeddelka cimilada ee dekedaha ay wajihi doonaan dhowrka sano ee soo socda. Warqadeenu waxay u ogolaataa ururada inay mudnaanta siiyaan maalgashiga caalamiga ah si ay ula qabsadaan dekedaha, iyo sidoo kale inay caawiyaan aqoonsiga faragelinta ugu habboon, "ayuu raaciyay Jasper Verschuur.

'Guud ahaan, daraasaddeennu waxay muujinaysaa in dekeduhu ay safka hore kaga jiraan saamaynta cimilada. Waxay hoosta ka xariiqday la qabsiga dekedaha si degdeg ah loogu baahan yahay, iyo falanqaynta khatarta ah ee la qiyaaso, sida lagu soo bandhigay warqadeena, waxay gacan ka geysan kartaa mudnaanta maalgashiga waxayna gacan ka geysan kartaa samaynta kiiska ganacsiga si loo dardargeliyo maaliyadda la qabsiga.

Tarjumid

Eng Mohamed Ahmed 

 

International trade and world economies exposed to multi-billion-dollar climate risk to ports - Oxford study

Nearly nine in ten major ports globally are exposed to damaging climate hazards, resulting in escalating economic impacts on global trade, according to new research from the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute (ECI).

Ports are crucial for the economy; they handle the vast majority of globe trade, are important hubs for industry and transport, and large providers of employment. But, by their very nature, ports are located in hazard-prone areas along the coast and close to rivers - exposed to storm and floods – and will have to cope with sea level rise and more severe storms because of climate change.

This could cause physical damages to port infrastructure, and disrupt port operations - with far-reaching consequences. As a measure of how big the problems could be, Hurricane Katrina (2005) shut down three ports in the US that handle almost half the country’s agricultural exports. And the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami damaged maritime assets worth $12 billion. Nevertheless, the climate risks faced by ports have not been quantified on a global scale - until now.

In today’s study [Thurs], published in Communications Earth and Environment, researchers from the ECI provide a detailed picture of climate risks for 1,340 of the most important ports globally. It combines a new geospatial database of port infrastructure assets with the most detailed available information on natural hazards, including earthquakes, cyclones and flooding, as well as localised information on “marine extremes” (wind speeds, waves, temperature, overtopping).

‘We found 86% of all ports are exposed to more than three types of climatic and geophysical hazards. Extreme conditions at sea (e.g. storms) are expected to cause operational disruptions to around 40% of ports globally. What’s more, ports are exposed to other hazards including river flooding and earthquakes so port designers and operators have to take multiple hazards into consideration. That’s not always happening at the moment. For instance, the foundations of quay walls need careful consideration when exposed to earthquakes, the orientation and design of breakwaters when exposed to extreme waves and surges, and the drainage system when exposed to fluvial and pluvial flooding. If that doesn’t happen, we could see major disruptions to global trade and supply chains,’ says research lead Jasper Verschuur,

The climate risk totals $7.6 billion per year, most of which is attributed to tropical cyclones and river flooding of ports. This number is more than half as large as a previous estimate of the climate risk of road and rail infrastructure on a global scale, illustrating that, although ports only encompass relatively small areas, the high value and density of assets can contribute to the climate risk on a national and global scale.

The largest climate risks are faced by large ports in Asia, the Gulf of Mexico and those in Western Europe. However, despite the absolute risk being particularly large in high-income countries, the impacts could be greatest in middle income countries’ ports.

Large ports in upper middle and high-income countries need to make sizeable investments to manage their risk in light of increasing climate change, which could become prohibitively expensive. On the other hand, infrastructure upgrades are needed to protect small ports in low-income countries from hazard impacts and frequent disruptions, which can have systemic impacts to economies they serve. At these ports, the impacts of climate change on economic activity can be reduced by improvements to infrastructure to make them more disaster-resilient and ensure year-round operations.

‘Luckily, initiatives are ongoing to upgrade outdated and inefficient port infrastructure at many ports. However, these efforts fall short given the expected climate change challenges ports will face over the next few decades. Our paper allows organisations to prioritise global investments to adapt ports, as well as help identify the most suitable interventions,’ adds Jasper Verschuur.

‘Altogether, our study shows ports are at the forefront of climate impacts. It underlines adaptation of ports is urgently needed, and quantified risk analysis, as presented in our paper, can help in prioritising investments and help make the business case to accelerate adaptation finance.’